V2: BSM with IV Skew

v22026-07-03159915.SZ Call K=4.0±5%

At 9:30, fetch all call strikes and build IV skew curve. Use strike-appropriate IV (interpolated) instead of constant IV. Compares v1 vs v2 prediction accuracy.

Changelog:
v1 → Constant IV from ATM contract v2 → IV skew interpolation — uses actual IV from each strike at 9:30, interpolates for target strike
v1 MAE
0.0114
v2 MAE
0.0130
Improvement
-13.7%
Minutes
242

Option Price: v1 (constant IV) vs v2 (skew IV)

0.22170.20640.19110.17580.160509:30:0010:00:0010:30:0011:00:0011:30:0013:29:0013:59:0014:29:0014:59:00Actualv1 (const)v2 (skew)

Prediction Error: v1 vs v2

-0.0010-0.0057-0.0103-0.0150-0.019609:30:0010:00:0010:30:0011:00:0011:30:0013:29:0013:59:0014:29:0014:59:00v1 Errv2 Err

IV: Constant vs Skew-Interpolated

0.40.40.40.40.43.843.903.964.024.084.144.20v1 IVv2 IV

IV Skew Curve (9:30 snapshot)

36.734.231.629.126.53.43.63.73.83.94.04.14.24.34.44.54.64.74.8IV Skew